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School DistrictsIIC, Inc. has worked for numerous school districts in New England and other parts of the country developing enrollment projections and performing other types of demographic analysis to assist school districts with planning for future years. School Enrollment ProjectionsFor a variety of school districts, IIC, Inc. has implemented a model to project the likely enrollment of a school district using historic data and current information regarding number of births, number of housing starts, and general population trends. Using a cohort-survival method, the model predicts numbers of students based upon how many students have historically arrived at each grade level. IIC, Inc. then documented its findings in a report and presentation to the municipality, and these enrollment projections have become an important tool to build budgets and plan facilities for future years. Educational Impact FeesFor the Miami-Dade County School District, IIC, Inc. evaluated the Educational Impact Fees that the County collects. To evaluate the structure that was implemented ten years ago and recommend changes to meet the school district’s needs going forward, we reviewed changes in demographic data over the last ten years related to population trends, housing developments, and student enrollment, as well as financial data related to the changes in construction costs, planned school facilities expansions, state reimbursements for school facility building, and tax receipts. To validate the assumptions in the model, IIC, Inc. undertook a detailed assessment of the student generation multiplier of new housing in the County over a five-year period and compared these results with student generation multipliers developed through use of the U.S. Census. Critique of Enrollment ProjectionsFor a public school system in Massachusetts, we reviewed an earlier analysis of enrollment performed by an outside consultant. The earlier projection had considered not only the routine grade-to-grade cohort projection, but had also considered the impact of three atypical projects that were expected to impact the enrollment projections. In reviewing and updating the enrollment methodology, we found slightly different impacts from the three projects, and also considered the potential impact on enrollment from two additional developments being planned for the town. Evaluation of Enrollment and Costs of Special EducationIIC, Inc. used its enrollment modeling techniques to estimate the number of students who would be enrolled in special education and bilingual classrooms, and adapted the model to account for the greater volatility within these populations. One member of IIC, Inc.’s staff participated in a study of the costs of special education. The study compared a school district’s per-pupil costs for providing services to special needs students with other districts in Massachusetts and in the United States. The study involved extensive analyses of numerous demographic and financial data sources that were publicly available. |
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