Our Experience

Industries Petroleum Natural Gas Chemicals Electronics Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, & Biotech Retail/Consumer Goods Technology Transportation Local/State Government School Districts Other Industries

Functional Areas Antitrust & Competition Analysis of Damages Forensic Economics Intangibles/IP Labor Economics Regulatory Economics & Finance Transfer Pricing Taxation Valuation Fiscal Impact Analysis Demographic Analysis Public Policy Analysis

 

Demographic Analysis

IIC, Inc. has worked with demographic data in several different settings to analyze housing development and school enrollment trends, to project school enrollment, to analyze general population trends, and to understand aspects of the labor market. We have worked with numerous school districts as well as the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to develop public school enrollment projections for grades kindergarten through high school. We have also analyzed the impact that new housing development of various types has on enrollment and general demographic trends within various communities. We have also analyzed general population projections, and developed a model for projecting new births, based on data relating to fertility rates and demographic trends of women of child-bearing age.

School Enrollment Projections

IIC, Inc. has developed an enrollment model for projecting the likely enrollment of a school district using historic data and current information regarding number of births, number of housing starts, and general population trends. Using a modified cohort-survival method, the model predicts numbers of students based upon how many students have historically arrived at each grade level. In one case, the model was used to predict the number of students who would be enrolled in special education and bilingual classrooms as well, while recognizing the greater volatility within these populations. IIC, Inc. then documented its findings in a report and presentation to the municipality, and these enrollment projections have become an important tool to build budgets for future years.

IIC, Inc. has refined this model for the Massachusetts School Building Authority so that it can be used as a web-based tool for all communities and school districts to develop enrollment projections. These projections will provide one input to the MSBA to evaluate the need for new school buildings in these communities and districts. As part of this work, we developed a statewide baseline projection for school enrollment, documented the model in a user guide and a report on the methodology, and performed numerous sample projections for a variety of school districts.

For the Miami-Dade County School District, we developed a 25-year enrollment projection, and have updated this projection annually. This work entailed evaluating the work of other demographers, and proposing alternative methods for projecting school enrollment and projecting births in a large complex school district with varying patterns of in- and out-migration. Given the size and complexity of this school district, we modified our model to account for these factors as well as significant recent changes in housing construction and migration patterns.

Recently we were asked to review and comment on various demographic projections relating to housing and general population trends to ensure the methods used and the resulting projections were consistent with general demographic data.